Five Bullets: Redskins Show a Pulse, Snag First Win Against Oakland 24-14

With 1/4th of the season gone don't forget to check out the NFL Probability Experiment at the top. This look's like my best week of picks. And if you haven't already, like The Master Debater on facebook by clicking here!

1. The Defense Played Defense

David Amerson's pick six was the turning
point in the game.

Let's not mince words. The Defense won the game in Oakland, not RG3, not Alfred Morris, not Roy Helu and not the offensive line. One touchdown was given up on a blocked punt, the other on a Matt Flynn touchdown pass. That adds up to the defense yielding a mere 7 points. And after David Amerson's pick six the defense netted ZERO points given up. Meaning that all the offense had to to do was cover up the gaffe on the blocked punt and score another point. We needed 8 points from our offense to win, and we got 17. The missed tackles were not as glaring and with 7 sacks the pass rush also improved. However, it's not much considering that we were playing the Raiders without their starting quarterback or top two starting running backs. Frankly, if our defense couldn't absolutely suffocate the handicapped Raiders then there would be no hope of salvaging the season. But zero net points given up, 12 third down stops out of 17 attempts, two turnovers forced and only 74 rushing yards given up to McFadden and Jennings is simply a solid outing for any defense, especially the NFL's worst.

2. Turnovers Are Still A Problem
RG3 had no turnovers, no interceptions, no fumbles. Good to finally see him taking care of the football after three bad games. However, we still turned the ball over twice. Once on a fumble and once on a blocked punt which resulted in a touchdown. Roy Helu fumbled as well but got away with it because the Raiders were offsides. The offense isn't producing points. They had a single good drive in the first half that ended in a field goal. That was it. Three points. Turnovers are not going to help this team win games and if we're gonna beat Dallas in two weeks this has to stop. We're getting demolished by opposing teams and don't need to shoot ourselves in the foot as well.

3. RG3 Continues to Improve
I will continue to preach that everyone needs to give him 4 more games to get back to form. By then RG3 should be the dynamic play-maker we've all grown accustomed to seeing. And I know it isn't a fair comparison considering all the garbage time they've had to play with but RG3 has the most yards and is tied for most touchdown passes among last year's quarterback class. Wilson has 6, Luck and Kaepernick* have 5, Tannehill has 4, and Weeden has 1 and is probably benched for the season. All three have been a little slow to start the season playmaking-wise. Granted Wilson and Tannehill are both undefeated but I'm simply talking from a numbers standpoint. He didn't throw a pick, he slid when he ran, and he had a touchdown pass. It's better than 300 yards, 3 tds 2 ints and a loss.

4. Ryan Kerrigan is a Stud 
In each of the first 4 games the Redskins have played, the defense has been attacked for their horrendous play. Lost in that barrage of hate and mediocrity is Ryan Kerrigan, the guy who plays linebacker opposite Brian Orakpo. He never misses a snap and has constantly pressured the quarterback in every single game this year. If he keeps this up he'll have twenty sacks (he has 5 right now) this season. Something unheard of since Dexter Manley's days in the 80's. Not only that but he's never caught an interception without taking it to the house. Every interception he's had has been for six points. Just an all around solid player. And to think people had us taking Blaine Gabbert in that draft...scary thoughts I tell ya.

5. Playoffs Are Suddenly a Possibility 
Don't get me wrong, the Redskins are not winning the Superbowl this year. Anyone who is says otherwise is one of those delusional Redskins fans that give us a bad rap. But with the NFC East so completely and utterly horrible the Redskins are now tied for 2nd place with the Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas remains on top at 2-2 but face Peyton Manning's red hot Broncos next week. A win against Dallas after the bye and we're 2-3 and at the top of the East. If that happens then we're pretty much given a clean slate and a fresh start to the rest of the season as the first three losses won't mean anything.

Bottomline: To be honest, with games against San Diego, Denver, Atlanta, Kansas City (yes the Chiefs are for real), and San Francisco it's simply going to be tough come out on top. All the Redskins need to do is get healthy and focus on being the team that won 7 straight games at the end of last year. And despite all the raucous surrounding the NFC East and RG3 we just need to focus on playing football, one week at a time.

*Kaepernick wasn't in that draft class but emerged the same year so I included him.

Five Bullets: Detroit Gets First Ever Win in D.C. 27-20

I was on a bus for the duration of the game and heard most of it on the radio, so keep that in mind if you read something that you didn't necessarily see in game. 

1. RG3 Continues to Improve
As dynamic as RG3 was last year, he only threw for 20 scores. His 100+ quarterback rating was due to his paltry 5 interceptions thrown during the ENTIRE season. This year RG3 has 4 picks and 2 lost fumbles compared to zero first half touchdown passes. The turnovers are slowing what is already an anemic offense and the Redskins are paying the price in the win column. His passing accuracy is improving, and he is showing some playmaking ability with his legs on scrambles and bootlegs but he still isnt 12' RG3. It is unfair to expect superstar play from this guy. He is a human being. I don't care what he says during press conferences but when you step back out on the football field after being injured the way he's been injured it takes time for your mind to shake off the jitters of getting hurt again. His mind is clouded and scared and it affects his on the field performance. By the second half of the season I'm pretty sure we'll have the old RG3 we all know and love back on the field.

2. The Defense Has Been Stepping Up

D. Hall has scored more TDs in the first half than the
entire Redskins offense this season

Joique Bell was held to 63 rushing yards and the run defense overall was stout. David Akers kicked two very short field goals meaning the defense clamped down in the red-zone. They only gave up three offensive touchdowns while scoring one of their own. The net points given up by the defense was 20, so all the offense had to do was score 21 points or more in 4 quarters to win. Three touchdowns is easy picking for most teams, hell even Brian Hoyer threw for three scores against the Vikings. But as usual we couldn't. Sure Stafford threw for 385 yards, but with our secondary issues that's going to happen; it's an improvement over the 480+ yards Aaron Rodgers threw for last week. Not only that, but they held Detroit to a mere 4-13 on third downs. They gave the offense plenty of chances but they couldn't take advantage. The defense is playing at a winnable level, but only if the offense can put some damn points on the board.

3. The Defense Still Can't Tackle
As much as they have improved from the Eagle's nightmare on Monday Night the defense still can't tackle. This is how big plays and first downs are made against the defense. They still can't seem to wrap up or get hand on some of these ball carriers. Not only that, but there just seems to be so much more open space when the defense is playing. Granted it's been better than the first two games but runners continue to get extra yards simply because people don't know how to tackle. It needs to get fixed, ASAP.

4. The Return Game is Garbage
Every time someone kicks the ball deep into our endzone Chris Thompson or whoever is back returning kicks feels the need to bring out, and get tackled short of the 15. This horrible starting field position is a big reason the offense starts out games insanely slow. Punt returners gain 3 yards and kickoff returners end up behind the 15 yard line. You need the other units of your team to help when others are struggling and, simply put, the return teams have just been digging the sixth foot of the offense's grave.

5. Play-Calling and Penalties Need to Improve
Fifty pass attempts compared to only twenty rushes. The offense needs a spark and the play calling needs to facilitate that. Lets run the god damned read option. Our high flying offense was predicated on play action last year; and as we struggle offensively we continue to take away the one thing that gave our offense life. Establishing the run will make everything easier: shorter third downs, more time of possession, more open passing lanes and less time the defense is on the field. Sometimes the game situation just doesn't allow it, but I want to see more option/pistol plays from this offense.

Bottomline: This is season is looking bleak in terms of playoffs, granted I said the same thing after we beat the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, but it just looks like we're taking too long to get our footing this season. After the bye we face teams like Denver, Chicago, San Fran, Atlanta and San Diego and it just seems like to big a hurdle to overcome after starting our 0-4 or at best 1-3. Not the best bottomline but I hope I'm proven wrong.

Five Bullets: Packers Dismantle Redskins 38-20

As always you can keep up with my NFL Probability Experiment by clicking at the tab on the top or, if you're lazy, by clicking here.

1. RG3 Ain't Playing Like RG3
Sure he had his 2nd consecutive 300 yard game and threw for 3 touchdowns but RG3 only seems to be able to move the ball after the defense decides that they can give up a few touchdowns. His timing is off, his accuracy, albeit a little better than last week, is still downright horrible. He isn't making plays with his feet and his passes are not hitting their mark. While this week was an improvement as his first throw wasn't an interception, he wasn't much better at moving the ball when the game was close. I know I said this last week, but there is nothing we can do but keep playing him. Griffin needs games to get back to form. We were all expecting 2012 pre-injury RG3 to return after a shortened recovery period and no preseason action. It's apparent that that hasn't happened. Keep playing him, make the adjustments and let him find his stride.

2. The O-Line is not Helping
Despite starting the same group as last year the offensive line is not as dominant as it was last season. Most of Alfred Morris's 107 yards came in garbage time (which was the entire 2nd half) and RG3 rarely had time to let his routes develop and he had multiple passes batted down at the line. The best cure for a struggling quarterback is time in the pocket and a strong running game. The line can provide both but has yet to do either.

3. Third Down Conversion Percentage Must Improve
In two games of regular season play the Redskins are an underwhelming 5/21 (23.8%) on converting third downs. Two things happen when you miss third downs: 1. The offense stops moving and gives up the ball. 2. The defense must hurry back onto the field. The defense played a "decent" game in the first quarter, amassing 3 sacks and holding a potent Aaron Rodgers to 10 points. But when the offense kept punting the ball and kept sending the defense out on the field they eventually broke down, giving up nearly 150 rushing yards to Green Bay's backup running back and nearly 500 passing yards to Rodgers. If the Redskins want to win games and score in the first half, they must sustain drives and convert third downs.

4. The Defense is Worse than Last Season

Rodgers Actually Threw 5 TDs but a fluke gave the
Redskins a do-ever on this drive.

The Packers were 4/10 on third down. That's not a bad stat if you're the defense. However, the Packers scored SIX times. That means that Green Bay, at the very least, scored twice without converting, or having faced, a single third down. And that's assuming that they faced one third down each of their other scoring drives which probably didn't happen. Just like last week the defense is missing tackles, taking bad angles, and are no where to be found when a receiver catches the ball leading to huge gains every other play. One would think that with Orakpo back and rookies David Amerson and Bacarri Rambo added to the defense that they would improve but it seems as though they regressed to the absolute worst in the NFL.

5. The Season Isn't Over Just Yet
As terrible as these two games have been there are still 14 games to be played. Granted if any of these trends continue it is likely that we'll be drafting pretty high next year, (but not really since St. Louis currently owns our first rounder). Although you have to figure that talent that won RG3 offensive rookie of the year and went 10-6 last season is still in there somewhere, and when he comes out, we will not be getting blown out in the first two quarters of football. Not to mention the entire NFC East lost today, so we're only one game behind the division title. Hope is not lost...yet.

Bottomline: The past two games have been systemic, complete roster failures. Offense can't score before the 3rd quarter. Defense can't hold teams to under 600 offensive yards. Special Teams can't make a damn field goal. Improvement is inevitable simply because we've hit rock bottom but unless drastic changes are made this week, Matthew Stafford is going to getting me some serious fantasy points next week. 

Five Bullets: Redskins Fall to Eagles 33-26

Going to school 25 minutes away from Lincoln Financial Field meant that I would be living my next four years in Eagles territory. What better way for me set my mark then by watching all the Eagles fans in the room moan as the Redskins rip them apart for the third straight game. Sadly it was I who was embarrassed, so much so that in the 3rd quarter, when Kai Forbath missed the field goal, I threw the remote down and angrily stormed out of the lounge and never came back.

This year I decided to tone down the length of my Redskins articles to 5 bullets on what I took from the game. Hopefully this makes for some quicker reads and a little more substance rather than just game summaries. Also, my stat experiment isn't off to the best start, but I made a new tab just for it! So you can check out the results without searching through blogposts. Without further ado, here are my five bullets from last nights game.

1. First half was nothing but complete ineptitude on all levels

This sums up the day

The defense was giving up a first down every other play. Vick had enough time to go through his progressions twice, look back at the sideline, eat a sandwich, and still complete the ball. Philly ran for some 220+ yards. I could drive a truck through the holes LeSean McCoy ran through. However, they did score a touchdown and buckle down eventually to keep the game competitive. The real story is how bad the offense was. Alfred Morris fumbles on his first carry, RG3 throws a pick on his first pass, Alfred Morris fumbles a pitch which results in a safety, and no scores in the first half. This tired out the defense who just started getting a handle on Vick. Which resulted in 2 more Eagles touchdowns. Even Kai Forbath missed a field goal albeit not in the first half.

2. Robert Griffin III was not comfortable this game. 

Having not seen live action for over 8 months RG3 was bound to be rusty. He was scared, he didn't set his feet, he threw two picks, (that's almost half as many he threw ALL of last season) he barely ran the ball, he missed so many throws I thought it was the other RG3 (Rex Grossman III) out there. Luckily Shanahan kept him in because he needed to play. He started getting a grip on things in the 2nd half, running a little more, hitting more plays, running the no-huddle, and making better throws, albeit against what appeared to be a prevent defense. He finished the game with a respectable stat line, 300+ yards, 2 scores and 2 picks. Not spectacular but not Blaine Gabbert horrendous either. Fear not, he will have a much better game against Green Bay. He just needed to get his bearings back; he hasn't been healthy since last October.

3. The running game wasn't there.

RG3 and Alfred Morris combined for less than 75 rushing yards the whole game, a far cry from the 168 they averaged last year. It was a combination of the Eagles' game planning to stop our rushing attack and the lack of any passing threat from RG3 in the first half that bogged us down. RG3 can be a pocket passer and doesn't the read option but every quarterback needs some help from the running game to keep the passing lanes open.

4. Our defense looked worse than last year

McCoy ran for a whopping 184 yards, a per carry average of 5.9 yards. Vick chipped in with another 54. Vick passed for 200 yards and 2 scores. When we got pressure, the secondary didn't hold up. If the secondary held up, Vick would get 10 minutes to throw the ball. When McCoy ran it, nobody was within 5 yards of him, and when they were, they missed tackles. After letting them score 33 points the defense finally buckled down and had a scoreless quarter and a half, but by then it was too late and our offense couldn't fully catch up.  Run defense was a strong suit last year, and with the return of Orakpo it was only expected to get better. If Eddie Lacey runs like this next Sunday there's no way we can stop Aaron Rodgers.

5. Hop of off Chip Kelly

I'm not saying this because I'm angry we lost but people have been putting too much of an emphasis on Kelly's "fast paced" offense. The reason it worked so well was because it was NEW. Remember when the Redskins had a new offense with RG3 in the mix last year? Totally caught the Saints off-guard and gave us the win. Remember Jim Zorn? He had a new offense and we went 6-2 before everyone figured out how to stop it. Sure he uses the no-huddle a little bit more than others, good for him, but don't call him an NFL coaching guru after one game. Also, Vick played a near perfect game which made his offense succeed, not the other way around.

Bottomline: For Redskins fans, that game was a nightmare to watch but it probably won't get worse than that. RG3 is working his way back into the system and hopefully Brandon Meriwether will be healthy enough to play Sunday. Our defense had flashes of dominance but were on the field way too long to remain effective. Look for all that to change next week as we give the Packers a tough fight if nothing else.

My 21 Week Probability Experiment

Introduction:

I've always found it amusing how so many people have jobs as "NFL Analysts". I don't consider them actual jobs but hey, there's a market for them and that's why they exist, can't argue with the economics of it. What I'm hoping to do is conduct an experiment to see how reliable these experts truly are at predicting games. If I can have a better season record of predicting games after 21 weeks than the experts, then we will see how pointless these peoples' opinions truly are.

Procedure:

Before each slate of NFL games I will toss a regular quarter to predict each game. Heads will mean the home team wins, tails will mean the away team wins. I'll tally these results up in an excel sheet and update the results as the weekend's games conclude. Updates will also be provided in my weekly Redskins articles. The coin will be tossed once,  caught and flipped over. If I drop it then I re-toss the coin. If the team I predicted wins, then a win is added to my win total, likewise for losses. So if in a week I call 5 games right and 7 games wrong then my record for that week will be 5-7.

Hypothesis:

If NFL Analysts are truly complete morons, then my cumulative win-loss record, at the end of the season, will be higher than the average of at least 5 NFL Analysts. They are the ATL crew from nfl.com who will also be predicting each week of fun nfl action. You can follow along, the experts I will be competing against are Marc Sessler, Dan Hanzus, Kevin Patra, Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling,all of which are writers for NFL's Around the League show.

1st Week's Predictions:
BAL @ DEN: Bal
NE @ BUF: Buf
SEA @ CAR: Car
CIN @ CHI: Cin
MIA @ CLE: Mia
MIN @ DET: Det
OAK @ IND: Oak
KC @ JAC: Kc
ATL @ NO: Atl
TB @ NYJ: Tb
TEN @ PIT: Ten
GB @ SF: Gb
ARI @ STL: Ari
NYG @ DAL: Nyg
PHI @ WSH: Wsh
HOU @ SD: Hous

Format: Away @ Home. Heads: Home wins Tails: Away wins.

What do you all think? I know some of the picks already seem horrible, but let's just see how this plays out over the 21 weeks.