As always you can keep up with my NFL Probability Experiment by clicking at the tab on the top or, if you're lazy, by clicking here.
1. RG3 Ain't Playing Like RG3
Sure he had his 2nd consecutive 300 yard game and threw for 3 touchdowns but RG3 only seems to be able to move the ball after the defense decides that they can give up a few touchdowns. His timing is off, his accuracy, albeit a little better than last week, is still downright horrible. He isn't making plays with his feet and his passes are not hitting their mark. While this week was an improvement as his first throw wasn't an interception, he wasn't much better at moving the ball when the game was close. I know I said this last week, but there is nothing we can do but keep playing him. Griffin needs games to get back to form. We were all expecting 2012 pre-injury RG3 to return after a shortened recovery period and no preseason action. It's apparent that that hasn't happened. Keep playing him, make the adjustments and let him find his stride.
2. The O-Line is not Helping
Despite starting the same group as last year the offensive line is not as dominant as it was last season. Most of Alfred Morris's 107 yards came in garbage time (which was the entire 2nd half) and RG3 rarely had time to let his routes develop and he had multiple passes batted down at the line. The best cure for a struggling quarterback is time in the pocket and a strong running game. The line can provide both but has yet to do either.
3. Third Down Conversion Percentage Must Improve
In two games of regular season play the Redskins are an underwhelming 5/21 (23.8%) on converting third downs. Two things happen when you miss third downs: 1. The offense stops moving and gives up the ball. 2. The defense must hurry back onto the field. The defense played a "decent" game in the first quarter, amassing 3 sacks and holding a potent Aaron Rodgers to 10 points. But when the offense kept punting the ball and kept sending the defense out on the field they eventually broke down, giving up nearly 150 rushing yards to Green Bay's backup running back and nearly 500 passing yards to Rodgers. If the Redskins want to win games and score in the first half, they must sustain drives and convert third downs.
4. The Defense is Worse than Last Season
The Packers were 4/10 on third down. That's not a bad stat if you're the defense. However, the Packers scored SIX times. That means that Green Bay, at the very least, scored twice without converting, or having faced, a single third down. And that's assuming that they faced one third down each of their other scoring drives which probably didn't happen. Just like last week the defense is missing tackles, taking bad angles, and are no where to be found when a receiver catches the ball leading to huge gains every other play. One would think that with Orakpo back and rookies David Amerson and Bacarri Rambo added to the defense that they would improve but it seems as though they regressed to the absolute worst in the NFL.
5. The Season Isn't Over Just Yet
As terrible as these two games have been there are still 14 games to be played. Granted if any of these trends continue it is likely that we'll be drafting pretty high next year, (but not really since St. Louis currently owns our first rounder). Although you have to figure that talent that won RG3 offensive rookie of the year and went 10-6 last season is still in there somewhere, and when he comes out, we will not be getting blown out in the first two quarters of football. Not to mention the entire NFC East lost today, so we're only one game behind the division title. Hope is not lost...yet.
Bottomline: The past two games have been systemic, complete roster failures. Offense can't score before the 3rd quarter. Defense can't hold teams to under 600 offensive yards. Special Teams can't make a damn field goal. Improvement is inevitable simply because we've hit rock bottom but unless drastic changes are made this week, Matthew Stafford is going to getting me some serious fantasy points next week.
1. RG3 Ain't Playing Like RG3
Sure he had his 2nd consecutive 300 yard game and threw for 3 touchdowns but RG3 only seems to be able to move the ball after the defense decides that they can give up a few touchdowns. His timing is off, his accuracy, albeit a little better than last week, is still downright horrible. He isn't making plays with his feet and his passes are not hitting their mark. While this week was an improvement as his first throw wasn't an interception, he wasn't much better at moving the ball when the game was close. I know I said this last week, but there is nothing we can do but keep playing him. Griffin needs games to get back to form. We were all expecting 2012 pre-injury RG3 to return after a shortened recovery period and no preseason action. It's apparent that that hasn't happened. Keep playing him, make the adjustments and let him find his stride.
2. The O-Line is not Helping
Despite starting the same group as last year the offensive line is not as dominant as it was last season. Most of Alfred Morris's 107 yards came in garbage time (which was the entire 2nd half) and RG3 rarely had time to let his routes develop and he had multiple passes batted down at the line. The best cure for a struggling quarterback is time in the pocket and a strong running game. The line can provide both but has yet to do either.
3. Third Down Conversion Percentage Must Improve
In two games of regular season play the Redskins are an underwhelming 5/21 (23.8%) on converting third downs. Two things happen when you miss third downs: 1. The offense stops moving and gives up the ball. 2. The defense must hurry back onto the field. The defense played a "decent" game in the first quarter, amassing 3 sacks and holding a potent Aaron Rodgers to 10 points. But when the offense kept punting the ball and kept sending the defense out on the field they eventually broke down, giving up nearly 150 rushing yards to Green Bay's backup running back and nearly 500 passing yards to Rodgers. If the Redskins want to win games and score in the first half, they must sustain drives and convert third downs.
4. The Defense is Worse than Last Season
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| Rodgers Actually Threw 5 TDs but a fluke gave the Redskins a do-ever on this drive. |
The Packers were 4/10 on third down. That's not a bad stat if you're the defense. However, the Packers scored SIX times. That means that Green Bay, at the very least, scored twice without converting, or having faced, a single third down. And that's assuming that they faced one third down each of their other scoring drives which probably didn't happen. Just like last week the defense is missing tackles, taking bad angles, and are no where to be found when a receiver catches the ball leading to huge gains every other play. One would think that with Orakpo back and rookies David Amerson and Bacarri Rambo added to the defense that they would improve but it seems as though they regressed to the absolute worst in the NFL.
5. The Season Isn't Over Just Yet
As terrible as these two games have been there are still 14 games to be played. Granted if any of these trends continue it is likely that we'll be drafting pretty high next year, (but not really since St. Louis currently owns our first rounder). Although you have to figure that talent that won RG3 offensive rookie of the year and went 10-6 last season is still in there somewhere, and when he comes out, we will not be getting blown out in the first two quarters of football. Not to mention the entire NFC East lost today, so we're only one game behind the division title. Hope is not lost...yet.
Bottomline: The past two games have been systemic, complete roster failures. Offense can't score before the 3rd quarter. Defense can't hold teams to under 600 offensive yards. Special Teams can't make a damn field goal. Improvement is inevitable simply because we've hit rock bottom but unless drastic changes are made this week, Matthew Stafford is going to getting me some serious fantasy points next week.
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